Presentation:
Sales forecasting is becoming more difficult yet more important, as the future
becomes less and less predictable. Mathematical models are limited, by nature, as
they only look backwards. Clearly, it’s high time for a change in approach.

It’s important to recognize that forecasting in and of itself offers little value. It’s
when that forecast is “connected” to a plan for the future, projecting resource
requirements, financial performance (P&L and Balance Sheet), sales & marketing KPI’s, and trends, -- that it becomes integral to the planning and management of company performance. Forecasting needs to be done at two levels – the planning level and the scheduling level. They are NOT the same thing.

Forecasts have traditionally been bashed as always being wrong. A more
enlightened approach is to start with the assumption that forecasts will rarely be
dead-on accurate, and to focus instead upon establishing a range of forecast error
with which to plan.

This talk will present a viable forecasting process, focused on four things:

1. Forecasting less detail, not more, -- yielding higher customer service and
   lower inventory.
2. Emphasizing teamwork, good communications, and clear accountabilities,
   which are more important than complex, statistical, backward looking
   forecasting models.
3. Understanding that forecasting is a process, and as such can be improved
   using standard techniques for process improvement.
4. Knowing it's more beneficial to pursue process improvement than to focus narrowly on forecast accuracy.

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